TL;DR: SSD prices have doubled since late 2024. A 1TB NVMe that cost $65–80 eighteen months ago now runs $130+. The culprits: AI data center demand eating NAND fab capacity, Samsung's aggressive production cuts, and supply consolidation from the Kioxia/WD merger. Prices will come down — but not until late 2026 at the earliest. Here's the data, the timeline, and the best deals available right now.
---
The Numbers: What SSDs Actually Cost Right Now
Let's skip the hand-waving. Here's what our pricing database shows for May 2026 median street prices across major US retailers:
1TB NVMe SSDs — Budget Tier
| Drive | May 2026 Median | Est. Late 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crucial P3 | $169.99 | ~$75 | +127% |
500GB — Entry Level
| Drive | May 2026 Median | Est. Late 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kioxia BG5 | $65.95 | ~$30 | +120% |
2TB — Value Tier
| Drive | May 2026 Median | Est. Late 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crucial P3 Plus | $199.99 | ~$95 | +111% |
The pattern is brutal and consistent: every mainstream NVMe SSD has roughly doubled in price over the past 18 months. This isn't a premium-brand markup or a tariff quirk — it's a systemic NAND supply crunch hitting the entire market.
> Prices are live median street prices from our database. Historical estimates based on publicly reported retail pricing in Q4 2024.
---
Why SSD Prices Doubled: The Three-Headed Problem
1. AI Ate the Fab
This is the big one. The same fabs that produce NAND flash are being repurposed — or their capacity is being competed away — by AI hardware demand.
HBM3E (High Bandwidth Memory) production for AI accelerators (NVIDIA H200, B200, AMD MI350X) consumes advanced packaging and wafer capacity that overlaps with NAND production lines. When Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron can sell HBM to NVIDIA at 5–10x the margin of consumer NAND, capital allocation decisions become obvious.
The result: NAND wafer starts have flatlined or declined even as consumer demand for SSDs has grown. Fewer wafers, same demand, higher prices. Classic squeeze.
2. Samsung's Deliberate Production Cuts
Samsung — the world's largest NAND producer with ~35% market share — cut NAND output by roughly 25% in late 2025. This wasn't an accident or a fab fire. It was a strategic decision to prop up prices after the brutal oversupply crash of 2023–2024 that cratered their memory division profits. Samsung's labor disputes haven't helped stability either.
Here's the thing: Samsung hasn't reversed those cuts. Six months later, production remains constrained. The company has signaled it will maintain "disciplined supply management" through at least Q3 2026 — corporate speak for "we're keeping prices high because it's working."
When the #1 producer deliberately removes a quarter of its output, everyone downstream feels it.
3. Kioxia/WD Merger Consolidated Supply
The completed merger between Kioxia and Western Digital's NAND operations created the second-largest NAND producer, behind Samsung. Fewer independent producers means less competitive pressure on pricing.
Pre-merger, Kioxia and WD competed aggressively on price, especially in the budget NVMe segment. Post-merger, that internal competition is gone. The combined entity has more leverage to maintain higher average selling prices.
This is textbook supply consolidation: fewer sellers → less price competition → higher equilibrium prices. The DDR5 market is seeing the same dynamic — memory consolidation is hitting every category.
---
When Will SSD Prices Drop?
Short-Term (June–August 2026): Flat or Slight Increase
Computex 2026 is happening this week (Jensen Huang's keynote). We expect announcements around new enterprise SSD lines and next-gen NAND technology (likely 300+ layer TLC/QLC). However, enterprise announcements typically take 2–3 quarters to trickle down to consumer pricing. Don't expect Computex to fix your build budget this summer.
Samsung has given no indication of ramping production before Q4. The AI demand story isn't cooling off — if anything, the hyperscaler capex cycle is accelerating.
Our prediction: 1TB NVMe prices stay in the $120–170 range through August.
Medium-Term (Q3–Q4 2026): Potential Correction Window
This is where we see the first realistic chance of meaningful price drops:
- Samsung's production cuts were always intended to be temporary. Internal reports suggest a potential modest ramp in Q4 2026, though nothing is confirmed.
- New NAND capacity comes online. Micron's new fab in Idaho and SK Hynix's expansion in South Korea should begin contributing wafer starts by late Q3.
- Seasonal demand softening. Q4 is typically softer for consumer PC components (outside of holiday sales), which could ease pricing pressure.
Our prediction: 1TB NVMe prices could drift back toward $90–110 by December 2026. Not 2024 lows, but meaningfully better.
Long-Term (2027): The Next Oversupply Cycle
NAND is cyclical. Always has been. The 2023–2024 crash that gave us $55 1TB drives was the oversupply phase. We're now in the undersupply phase. History says these cycles last 18–24 months before new capacity comes online and prices crash again.
If you can wait until mid-2027, prices will almost certainly be significantly lower. But that's a long time to wait if you need storage today.
---
What to Buy Right Now: Our Top Picks
If you need an SSD today, here's where the best value is in this painful market:
Best Overall Value: Kingston NV2 1TB — $109.99
The NV2 is the cheapest 1TB NVMe drive with solid performance. It's DRAM-less and uses QLC NAND, so it's not a benchmark champion — but for a gaming drive, boot drive, or general-purpose storage, it's the best price-per-gigabyte available at 11 cents/GB. Buy this if you need 1TB and don't want to overpay.
Find Kingston NV2 1TB deals on Hardware Hunter
Runner-Up: Crucial P3 Plus 1TB — $137.47
If you want PCIe Gen 4 speeds and slightly better sustained write performance than the NV2, the P3 Plus is the next step up. At $137, it's not cheap — but it's a known-good drive with a solid track record.
Find Crucial P3 Plus 1TB deals on Hardware Hunter
Budget Build: Kioxia BG5 500GB — $65.95
If you're putting together a budget system and 500GB is enough, the Kioxia BG5 is the cheapest NVMe option we're tracking. It's an OEM pull that performs well for the money. At 13 cents/GB, it's actually a worse ratio than the 1TB NV2 — which is why we generally recommend stretching for the 1TB drive if your budget allows.
Find Kioxia BG5 500GB deals on Hardware Hunter
Best 2TB Deal: SK Hynix BC901 2TB — $120.00
This is a sleeper pick. At $120 for 2TB (6 cents/GB), the BC901 is actually cheaper per gigabyte than most 1TB drives. It's an OEM model so availability is spotty, but when you can find it, it's the best storage deal in the current market. If you need bulk storage, buy this.
Find SK Hynix BC901 2TB deals on Hardware Hunter
---
What to Wait For
If you can delay your purchase, here's what to watch:
1. Computex 2026 announcements — new product launches that could create competitive pressure in H2
2. Samsung Q3 earnings call (July) — any signal about production ramp plans will move the market
3. Black Friday / Cyber Monday 2026 — historically the best time to buy SSDs, even in up-markets
4. New PCIe Gen 5 budget drives — as Gen 5 matures, Gen 4 drives should see price compression
We're tracking all of this in real-time. Set up a deal alert on Hardware Hunter and we'll notify you when prices hit your target.
---
The Bottom Line
SSD prices are brutally high right now, and there's no magic fix coming in the next few months. The combination of AI demand, Samsung's production discipline, and supply consolidation has created a perfect storm for consumers.
If you need a drive today, the Kingston NV2 1TB at $110 is the best value play. If you can wait, Q4 2026 through early 2027 is the most likely window for meaningful price relief.
We'll keep tracking prices daily and updating our SSD price guides as the market moves. The cycle will turn — it always does.
---
Prices reflect May 2026 median street prices from our database of major US retailers. Historical comparisons are estimated based on publicly reported retail pricing. Check Hardware Hunter for the latest.
Last updated: May 31, 2026
Continue Reading
Stop checking manually.
Set up a hunt and get alerted when the right deal hits the right price.
Get started free →